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Irrational Exuberance


Title Irrational Exuberance
Writer Robert J. Shiller (Author)
Date 2024-10-07 09:13:35
Type pdf epub mobi doc fb2 audiobook kindle djvu ibooks
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Desciption

As Robert Shiller’s new 2009 preface to his prescient classic on behavioral economics and market volatility asserts, the irrational exuberance of the stock and housing markets “has been ended by an economic crisis of a magnitude not seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s.” As we all, ordinary Americans and professional investors alike, crawl from the wreckage of our heedless bubble economy, the shrewd insights and sober warnings, and hard facts that Shiller marshals in this book are more invaluable than ever. The original and bestselling 2000 edition of Irrational Exuberance evoked Alan Greenspan’s infamous 1996 use of that phrase to explain the alternately soaring and declining stock market. It predicted the collapse of the tech stock bubble through an analysis of the structural, cultural, and psychological factors behind levels of price growth not reflected in any other sector of the economy. In the second edition (2005), Shiller folded real estate into his analysis of market volatility, marshalling evidence that housing prices were dangerously inflated as well, a bubble that could soon burst, leading to a “string of bankruptcies” and a “worldwide recession.” That indeed came to pass, with consequences that the 2009 preface to this edition deals with. Irrational Exuberance is more than ever a cogent, chilling, and astonishingly far-seeing analytical work that no one with any money in any market anywhere can afford not to read–and heed. Read more


Review

The author first mentioned the twelve precipitating factorsfor a bubble. Precipitating factors like capitalism explosionand ownership society, new information technology, supportivegovernmental monetary policies and analysts' optimistic forcast.This ultimately resulted in a feedback loop which amplifiedthe 'story' behind the stock or even in a painting like MonaLisa. If a stock or any investment had a strong credible storybehind it, the story greatly enhanced the value of the investment.How was this possible? It was through the channels of the mediaand word-of-mouth. Word-of-mouth was cited to be more potentthough less accurate. The analogy of how ants communicate andhow epidermics spread was used to desbribe how bubbles formed."New-era thinking' was another reason bubbles formed. The adventof automobiles and radio in the '20s; the television in the '50s;and the internet in the '90s.The book is well structured and support material is sufficientto prove its point. One gripe is the complex and cumbersomesentence syntax used. Commas were missing where they could beinserted to make reading easier.

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